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☆ Home Sellers' Tough Summer: Get Ready for Lower Prices, Fewer Offers
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Rich baby boomers jumped in with all-cash offers, and sellers scored huge windfalls as weary buyers pushed prices to new heights. After all, people have to move for a wide variety of life reasons; mortgage rates be damned. "The further and further we get from the peak of the market," Peterson told me, "the harder it is to deny what's happened." Mortgage rates haven't fallen — in fact, they've gone up about 0.6 percentage points since the start of the year. "It can always be tricky telling somebody that they were just lucky because it makes you sound envious," Peterson told me.

Persons: Rich, Sellers, Eric Peterson, Peterson, Austin, Freddie, they've, Selma Hepp, Freddie Mac, Mike Simonsen, Redfin, towners, Libby Levinson, Katz, Price, Levinson, John Burns, they'll, Realtor.com, you'd Organizations: Freddie Mac, Reserve, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Altos Research, Sun, John, John Burns Research, Consulting Locations: Austin, Boise , Idaho, Denver

☆ People priced out of Austin and Orlando are moving to these cheaper cities
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Dan Latu | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Austinites are heading an hour away, to Killeen, according to real-estate consultancy John Burns. Orlando residents are decamping to Lakeland, Florida, trading nightlife for space, John Burns said. The Austin metropolitan area similarly grew 2.7% in 2021 and 2022, adding 63,000 people, according to the city of Austin. In 2021, 1,607 households moved from Orlando to Lakeland, while 250 households left Austin for Killeen, John Burns said in its analysis, published March 5. The primary reason is affordability, Austin real-estate agent Lisa Copeland told Business Insider.

Persons: John Burns, —, Orlando, Redfin, Killeen, Austin, Lisa Copeland, Copeland, Jordan Prais, It's, Prais, Lakeland's, it's Organizations: Service, Orlando, Austin, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Business, Lakeland, Florida Children's Museum, Army Locations: Killeen, Orlando, Lakeland , Florida, Austin, Killeen , Texas, Lakeland, Central Florida, Austinites, Texas, Fort Hood

☆ Homebuyers' Biggest Mistake: Waiting for Mortgage Rates to Fall
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Then, as the Federal Reserve began its battle against inflation in 2022, mortgage rates shot up, eventually hitting a 20-year high in October. Over the past decade, there's been a clear correlation between mortgage rates and inventory: When mortgage rates fall, the number of available homes for sale at a given moment shrinks. So, yes, waiting it out until mortgage rates decline sure seems appealing. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it plans to drop borrowing rates this year, which would likely push down mortgage rates. Advertisement"People are focusing on mortgage rates because every week they hear about mortgage rates changing," Doerner of the FHFA told me.

Persons: swiping, there's, Mike Simonsen, Freddie Mac, CoreLogic, —, homebuyers, Redfin, John Burns, Alex Thomas, There's, Will Doerner, Doerner, They're, Simonsen, it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Buyers, Altos Research, Bank of America, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal, Fed

☆ Home Prices May Be Sky-High, but America Is Not in a Housing Bubble
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

The housing market, they claimed, was a bubble destined to burst. I’ve spent the past few years asking experts a simple question: Has the housing market reached bubble territory? AdvertisementFor a time, it seemed like the housing market was doing a speedrun through Simonsen’s checklist. And even if the economy does take a turn, a run-of-the-mill recession probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the housing market. The housing market is far from balanced, but we’re at least heading in that direction.

Persons: doomsayers, I’ve, Redfin, you’ve, you’ll, Mike Simonsen, megalandlords, ”, Ian Shepherdson, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rick Palacios Jr, John Burns, ” doomsayers, might’ve, It’s, it’s, Logan Mohtashami, don’t, US homebuilders, “ It’s, ” Mohtashami, Selma Hepp, Fannie Mae, Palacios, ” Palacios, Mohtashami Organizations: Altos Research, Wall, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Housing Finance Agency Locations: Charlotte, North Carolina, Austin, Las Vegas, Miami, Boise , Idaho, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US

☆ Nashville's real estate boom has builders scrambling and residents facing sky high prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Nashville building boom is in full effect, despite higher interest rates, higher home prices and a weaker national economy. During the Great Recession after the 2008 financial crisis, workers were looking for an urban vibe but with cheaper housing. While home prices nationally are up 47% from the start of the pandemic, Nashville prices are up 55%, according to ICE Mortgage Technology. "What we're seeing housing prices and rents go to is very foreign to what they would call affordable," said Eldridge. Gallagher has been working in Nashville's commercial real estate sector since moving to the city over a decade ago.

Persons: We've, John Eldridge, Eldridge, John Burns, CNBC he's, haven't, It's, Madison Cartularo, I've, Cartularo, Janelle Gallagher, Nashville . Gallagher, she's, that's, Gallagher, Bill Lee Organizations: Istock, Getty Images Nashville, E3 Construction, John Burns Research, Consulting, CNBC, Nashville, ICE Mortgage Technology, ICE, CBRE Locations: Nashville , Tennessee, Nashville, Los Angeles, Redfin, United States, New Yorker, Tennessee

☆ A Higher Monthly Payment, but Less Square Footage
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Conor Dougherty | More About Conor Dougherty | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

With interest rates rising and mortgage costs with them, homebuilders are pulling in yards, tightening living rooms and lopping off bedrooms in an attempt to keep the monthly payment in line with what families can afford. In a recent survey of architects, John Burns Research and Consulting found that about half expected their average house size to decline. New communities will have more duplexes or small-lot single-family homes that are just a few feet apart. Even in Texas, where land is abundant, builders are adding more homes per acre, the company found. “The monthly payment matters more than anything else and builders have responded with smaller, more efficient homes,” said John Burns, the company’s chief executive.

Persons: John Burns, ”, Hayden Organizations: John Burns Research, Consulting Locations: Texas, Pacific Northwest, exurbs

☆ Nobody wants to leave Texas. It's fueling an economic boom.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The state's population growth has helped its economy thrive. Plenty of Americans have moved to Texas in recent years, but the state's population growth has also been driven by another factor — native-born residents aren't leaving. It's helping fuel an economic boom at a time when many businesses are struggling to attract workers . Texas has no state income tax , and major cities like Dallas and Austin provide residents plenty of places to pursue job opportunities. But the state's population trends should position it well in the long term.

Persons: Texans aren't, Jobs, John Burns Organizations: Texans, Service, Dallas Fed, Lone Star State, John Burns Research, Consulting, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, Texas, California, Plenty, North Carolina, Canada, Dallas, Austin, Houston, San Antonio, Fort Worth

☆ Strong housing demand will support prices most in these 6 cities as people move to them in droves, according to John Burns Research — but these 13 cities are most at risk as their populations drain
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

John Burns Research and Consulting recently published a list of cities and their migration trends. But looking at the demand side of the equation via population trends can give you an idea of where people increasingly desire to live or leave. In a late-August note, Chris Porter and John Burns of John Burns Research and Consulting published a list of cities where they see migration trends rising and falling, citing address change data from the US Postal Service. "We now monitor domestic migration trends in near real time, using postal address change forms that are current within a few months. In the note, they separated the cities into tiers where migration trends are changing most and only slightly.

Persons: John Burns, Chris Porter, Porter, Burns Organizations: John Burns Research, Consulting, Boston, US Postal Service Locations: Denver, Nashville, San Diego

☆ Mortgage rate tipping point: Homeowners say roughly 5% is the magic number to move
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Higher interest rates created a 'golden handcuff' effectSince it's unlikely rates will drop anytime soon, this has created a so-called golden handcuff effect. Similar to the financial incentives employers may offer to discourage employees from leaving a company, homeowners are now bound by their low mortgage rate. They don't want to move now and give up that low rate to buy at a higher rate. Between 1978 and 1981, mortgage rates similarly doubled from around 9% to more than 18%, compelling more homeowners to hold on to their homes. However, "mortgage rates weren't at record lows in the late 70s before they started to skyrocket in the early 80s, nor did home prices increase as rapidly," Channel said.

Persons: Nicole Bachaud, Bachaud, John Burns, Tomas Philipson, Bob, Terri Wood, Bob Wood Bob Wood, Terri, It's, Wood, he'd, Greg McBride, Jacob Channel Organizations: Finance, John Burns Research & Consulting, University of Chicago, White House Council, Economic Advisers, CNBC Locations: Mobile , Alabama, Tennessee, LendingTree

☆ American homes are shrinking, but it isn't making houses any more affordable
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Jordan Pandy | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Yet, the cost per square foot has markedly accelerated over the same period, data from John Burns Research and Consulting shows. We saw increased prices across the board, and that's showing up in that increased price per square foot." Not only are prices per square foot going up, data suggests that contractors are less likely to build homes with a lower price per square foot. AdvertisementAdvertisementFurther double-digit jumps in price per square foot are less likely to materialize in the current environment. But as floor plans get smaller, price per square foot could stay stubbornly high.

Persons: John Burns, That's, Chris Porter, demographer, Porter, Redfin Organizations: Census, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Builders, Service, Homeowners, Wall Street Journal Locations: Wall, Silicon, Indiana, Zillow

☆ The last, best hope for homebuyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

But there may be one last hope for salvation for these hard-pressed homebuyers: brand-spanking new houses. Many builders are even dangling perks like cheaper loans or other discounts to ease the pain of higher mortgage rates. Homebuilding is typically a cyclical industry, following the ups and downs of the broader housing market. Of course, people will always move for reasons that have nothing to do with mortgage rates. Even if buyers get some relief from new housing construction, builders are still a long way off from bridging the housing shortfall.

Persons: Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Realtor.com, bottoming, John Burns, Black Knight, Mike Simonsen, Simonsen, bode, it's, Sheryl Palmer, Taylor Morrison, Palmer, Cristian deRitis, Jay Parsons, Matthew Walsh, Walsh, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, They're, production's, James Rodriguez Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, John Burns Research, Consulting, Altos Research, National Association of Homebuilders, Builders, Moody's

☆ The biggest home buyers in America are now selling more property than they're buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial property headwinds aside, today we're looking at the residential housing market, which is undergoing its own shifts, but not exactly in the same direction. Tell someone that the housing market is so unfavorable right now that the biggest home buyers in the country are actually net sellers now. American Homes 4 Rent, for example, bought 312 single-family homes and sold 666 to start the year. Similarly, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US, bought 194 homes and sold 297 in the first quarter of 2o23. Naturally, the housing market has slowed down for everyday Americans, too, given the steep mortgage rates and lack of affordability.

☆ Housing market shifts are driving out some of the biggest home buyers in the country
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Institutional investors bought 90% fewer homes in the first two months of 2023 compared to a year ago. High rates and home prices have turned some big buyers into net sellers this year. That trend accelerated from the fourth quarter, when institutional home-buying activity slumped 79% from a year ago, according to Fortune. Among the institutional investors, American Homes 4 Rent was a net seller of homes in the first quarter, buying 312 single-family homes and shedding 666, per Fortune. Similarly, Invitation Homes — the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US — was a net seller in the first quarter.

☆ The Real Reason Rent Costs Are Sky High: People Left Their Roommates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Though rent growth has slowed in recent months, renters in large cities are still feeling the effects of the 2021-22 rent boom. Residents of these places are now asking the question: If so many people left, why is my rent still so expensive? The first was outbound migration, which led to weaker housing demand in city centers. "High house prices, high rents, and rising interest rates are probably pushing back against household formation," Ozimek told me. If more employees keep adopting remote work — which, I'll admit, is a big "if" — that indicates housing demand is bound to increase.

☆ The housing market is showing signs of a rebound as cancellations for homes under construction drop to levels last seen during the pandemic buying boom
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rate of cancellations has dropped nearly to what was seen during the peak of the pandemic housing boom. A March survey by John Burns Research and Consulting found that builders reported an aggregate cancellation rate of 9% for purchases of new homes under construction. KB Home, for example, said its cancellation rate for the first three months of 2023 stood at 36%, down from 68% the quarter prior. "As we entered the spring selling season during the quarter, we began to see an increase in [housing] demand," Jeffrey Mezger, chief executive of KB Home said in March. "This reflected in part the targeted sales strategies we deployed, together with a stabilizing mortgage interest rate environment.

☆ The housing market’s still in limbo - but homebuyers could pile back into the market if mortgage rates hit this key level
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"Home sales are trying to recover and are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates," NAR economist Lawrence Yun said. He added that home prices are still climbing in regions where jobs are being added and housing is relatively affordable. cutting rates) in the next 12 months, which will again sway the housing sector. With that outlook in mind, the economist said "home sales will steadily rebound despite several months of fluctuations." Even in a tight market, this home expert still sees potential to save money on interest rates.

☆ 5.5% may be a magic number for mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Mortgage rates more than doubled over the past year, reaching as high as 7.08% in November, according to Freddie Mac’s average weekly mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan. The survey found that 5.5% mortgage rates seem to be the tipping point. A majority of respondents — 71% — said they are not willing to accept a mortgage rate above 5.5%. Looking at forecasts of mortgage rates for the rest of the second quarter of 2023, no major forecast is even predicting rates under 6%. Furthermore, 5.5% is lower than the historical average for mortgage rates.

☆ How Severe Is the Housing Shortage? It Depends on How You Define ‘Shortage’
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Josh Zumbrun | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

How many new homes does the U.S. need to build to restore normalcy to the housing market? While everyone seems to agree there’s a housing shortage, there’s little agreement on its magnitude. The National Low Income Housing Coalition says the U.S. has a shortage of 7.3 million units, Realtor.com says 6.5 million, mortgage-finance company Fannie Mae says 4.4 million and Up for Growth, a policy group focused on the housing shortage, says 3.8 million units. John Burns Research & Consulting, a real-estate industry consultant, puts it at just 1.7 million.

☆ Today's homebuyers have their mortgage rate tipping point, and it's artificially low
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Today's homebuyers are exceptionally sensitive to mortgage rates with house prices so high — and they've found their tipping point. After years of government intervention following the great recession and the first years of the Covid-19 pandemic that kept mortgage rates artificially low, today's buyers have a skewed view of what "normal" mortgage rates are. In addition, 62% of buyers said they believed that a "historically normal mortgage rate" was below 5.5%. "Today's homebuyers are extremely sensitive to fluctuating interest rates, and a significant drop in mortgage rates would likely make the market more competitive." Nearly two-thirds of respondents said they've had to reduce their housing budgets due to the current level of mortgage rates.

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